In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential election still more than two years on the horizon, prediction markets are already establishing prices across the field. Republican succession following Trump's constitutional ineligibility and Democratic primary rivalries are both seeing substantial trading volume. Traders who spot mispricings in these nascent markets stand to benefit as the candidate pool eventually contracts.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
Trump's third-term prohibition leaves the Republican nomination entirely open:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Vice-presidential incumbency edge, closely aligned with Trump
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Gubernatorial approval ratings, recovery narrative from 2024 campaign struggles
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centrist coalition appeal, international relations experience
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Two-term Virginia governor with strong approval, entrepreneurial credentials
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Anti-establishment, pro-worker positioning
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficiently dispersed field permits late-breaking contenders
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Leading contender, party establishment backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet-level prominence via Transportation portfolio
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — State executive with West Coast influence and media presence
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Swing-state executive from Pennsylvania
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Timeline permits emergence of fresh political figures
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (near-parity reflecting early-stage uncertainty)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Participating in early 2028 markets provides several advantages:
- Greater volatility stems from elevated information gaps, creating asymmetric profit opportunities for prescient positioning
- Extended holding periods allow thesis development as new data surfaces
- Possibility to accumulate positions in undervalued candidates before catalysts trigger repricing
Drawback: nascent markets exhibit heightened sensitivity to surprise announcements and candidate availability shifts.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Precedent is mixed: sitting VPs have secured nominations (Bush Sr following Reagan in 1988) but also failed (Gore's 2000 loss despite incumbency). Prediction markets currently treat Vance as the leading contender whilst acknowledging meaningful uncertainty.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Both parties' nomination markets settle following their respective national conventions — ordinarily scheduled for July or August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- Contests like the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary typically generate dedicated markets opening between six and twelve months prior — explore PolyGram's political markets section for availability.