In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of depth and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi stands out as the sole CFTC-authorised option for American participants. Manifold delivers entertainment value through play-money forecasting without financial stakes. For traders across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. Below is a detailed breakdown of how the sector's leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in annual trading volume. Most competitive pricing on geopolitical and digital asset contracts |
| Markets | 1,000+ live contracts spanning elections, blockchain, athletics, research, entertainment |
| Fees | Zero house take. Bid-ask spreads range from 1–3 cents |
| Currency | USDC settled on Polygon blockchain (digital wallet needed) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding United States. Identity verification mandatory |
| Best for | Professional forecasters and informed speculators |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's singular CFTC-authorised prediction venue. It provides lawful access for US-based participants who cannot use Polymarket and has experienced substantial expansion. Trade-offs include a narrower contract selection relative to Polymarket, alongside regulatory constraints that restrict certain contract categories from being offered.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using fictional currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. It serves as an excellent platform for honing forecasting abilities and engaging with collaborative prediction—yet lacks genuine financial returns. The platform hosts more than 10,000 user-generated contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus collects and synthesises probabilistic estimates submitted by its network of professional forecasters. While no monetary stakes are involved, it excels at maintaining forecast histories and analysing long-term geopolitical developments. Researchers regularly reference its data when studying forecast calibration and collective intelligence.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues to process enormous sums across athletic and electoral contracts annually. Strengths include traditional currency support, FCA oversight, and unmatched depth in sports wagering. Limitations comprise a 2–5% take on profits, absence of blockchain-based markets, and comparatively sparse election contract coverage versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the US seeking maximum market depth and contract breadth: Polymarket via PolyGram is the standout option. PolyGram streamlines blockchain onboarding while granting complete access to Polymarket's order book and live sports markets. Start trading on PolyGram →