In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where participants trade YES/NO shares on real-world events using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Settlement and payouts are executed automatically through smart contracts.
What is Polymarket's core function? Fundamentally, Polymarket operates as a prediction marketplace: rather than wagering against a bookmaker's built-in edge, you exchange positions with other market participants who hold different views. Market prices continuously shift to reflect what the collective trader base believes is the true likelihood of an outcome — these quotations update instantly as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
In a prediction market, you acquire shares representing potential outcomes. Each share yields $1 upon YES resolution, or $0 upon NO resolution. When you purchase a YES share for 40 cents ($0.40), you're expressing the belief that this event has a 40% probability of occurring. Success means your capital doubles. Failure means you forfeit your investment.
Polymarket differs from conventional bookmakers in that there is no built-in margin (the "vig"). Market prices emerge solely from what buyers and sellers are willing to transact at.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket operates atop the Polygon blockchain (a layer-2 scaling solution for Ethereum). This architecture delivers:
- Complete on-chain transparency and auditability of all activity
- Automated execution of deposits, trading, and fund distribution via smart contracts
- Elimination of counterparty risk — the Polymarket organisation cannot seize assets or alter results
- Near-instantaneous settlement rather than multi-day clearing cycles
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
Polymarket exclusively uses USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a 1:1 peg with the US dollar. Your account balance remains insulated from cryptocurrency price swings — each USDC unit consistently equals $1.
How markets resolve
Once an event's outcome becomes publicly known, Polymarket leverages the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) to finalise market settlements. An appointed "proposer" reports the outcome; a 2-hour challenge period follows; if no disputes arise, the payout becomes binding. Should disputes emerge, UMA token holders participate in a decentralised vote to determine the correct resolution.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Create an account — register via email and complete identity verification requirements
- Deposit USDC — fund your account through MoonPay, direct bank transfer, or existing cryptocurrency holdings
- Browse markets — explore offerings across politics, sports, crypto, entertainment and beyond
- Buy shares — select YES or NO and specify your position size
- Manage positions — exit trades whenever you choose prior to market closure
PolyGram streamlines this workflow through a mobile-optimised design and passwordless email authentication. You can explore live sports markets and other offerings. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction markets consistently deliver superior accuracy compared to conventional polling methodologies and professional analyst predictions. Throughout the 2024 US election cycle, Polymarket's probability assessments demonstrated greater precision than leading polling organisations. The mechanism driving this accuracy is straightforward: financial incentives compel traders to make rigorous, unbiased assessments of true probabilities.