Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) passed the House with bipartisan support on 17 July 2025 but remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, where a competing draft, the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, is under discussion [5][6]. With the current crowd-implied probability at 38% YES, the market reflects significant uncertainty about whether the Senate will adopt, amend, or reject the House version before the 31 December 2026 signing deadline.

Historically, crypto market-structure bills face prolonged Senate hurdles; the GENIUS Act, passed alongside CLARITY in July 2025, focused narrowly on stablecoins and cleared faster, whereas broader frameworks like the earlier Lummis-Gillibrand proposal took years to gain traction [5][6]. The 38% probability aligns with past cases where House-passed crypto bills stalled due to jurisdictional disputes between the SEC and CFTC, though CLARITY’s explicit delineation of roles may improve its odds compared to prior attempts [2][3].

Traders should monitor Senate Banking Committee hearings on H.R.3633 and any official votes on the RFIA discussion draft, as a Senate vote on CLARITY before Q4 2026 would be the primary catalyst for a probability surge [6]. Recent reporting notes the Senate has not yet scheduled a vote on the House bill, and the absence of a confirmed timeline increases the risk of delay beyond the settlement window [6]. Key dependencies include whether Senate leadership prioritises CLARITY over RFIA and whether bipartisan backing in the House translates to Senate co-sponsors.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.