What price will Bitcoin hit on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the closing price of Bitcoin on 25 June 2026, which the market currently values at roughly $60,900, down 2.78% from the previous day and 42.5% below its peak one year ago[4]. Historical parallels show June has often been a weak month; in 2021, Bitcoin dropped to $17,708 in June, while October 2025 marked its all-time high of $126,198 before a sharp correction[8]. The current 2% crowd-implied probability for a significant price surge aligns with this pattern of June volatility and the asset’s recent inability to reclaim its 2025 highs, suggesting traders view a breakout as highly improbable given the prevailing downward trend[1].

Key catalysts for traders include the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcements and institutional adoption data, which directly influence liquidity and demand. A recent Fortune report notes Bitcoin’s extreme volatility makes it far less guaranteed than stocks, reinforcing caution despite its long-term outperformance[1]. Additionally, the Polymarket leading outcome of $60,000–$62,000 at 77% probability indicates the market expects stability within this narrow band rather than a dramatic spike[2]. Traders should monitor the resolution timing around 25 June 2026, as odds shift in real-time based on new information, with the market set to resolve on or around that date[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.