Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
3% | 97% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
3% | 97% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↑ 1,950 | 3% |
| ↓ 1,900 | 2% |
| ↑ 2,050 | 1% |
| ↓ 1,800 | 1% |
| ↑ 2,250 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,200 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,150 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,100 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,850 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,750 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,700 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,650 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,600 | 0% |
Market context
Ethereum is trading around **$1,900–$1,925**, so the market is effectively asking whether price can hold a modest recovery rather than break into a new regime. Recent prints cluster tightly: MetaMask showed **$1,918.90** on 9 August, Twelve Data recorded an intraday **high and close around $1.92K**, and CoinDesk put ETH at **$1,923.78**. That leaves the crowd-implied **0% YES** on a specific August 9 price target looking more like a view that the exact threshold is out of reach than a call on direction, especially since ETH has already spent time near its weekly high around **$1,929.74** and within a relatively narrow band from roughly **$1,846 to $1,930**.[1][2][3][14]
For traders, the main catalysts are the same ones that have been supporting the tape: spot ETF inflows, institutional yield strategies, and any fresh change in staking policy or regulatory tone. CoinStats said those flows were providing structural support on 9 August, while the market was also debating a contentious staking-policy proposal, which could affect sentiment if it shifts expectations for supply dynamics or validator economics.[3] The key line to watch is whether ETH can stay above the **$1,900** area; if it does, price discovery towards **$1,965–$2,000** becomes more plausible, whereas a drop back towards the mid-**$1,800s** would undermine any late-session push on the August 9 settlement level.[3][4]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for What price will Ethereum hit on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade What price will Ethereum hit on August 9? on World Cup 2026 Favorites
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →