Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump faces a 9% crowd-implied probability of resigning or being removed from the presidency before the end of 2026, a figure that reflects the steep constitutional hurdles required for such an outcome. Historical precedent shows that while impeachment inquiries are possible, conviction and removal are rare unless the opposing party holds significant sway in the Senate. In Trump’s second term, Democrats control the House and have initiated an impeachment inquiry, yet Republicans retain Senate support, making conviction unlikely [2]. Kalshi prediction markets estimate a 28.7% chance of impeachment and removal rising sharply from April, but most analysts still place actual removal odds near 10% [1][4].

Traders should monitor key catalysts including formal impeachment votes, Senate trial outcomes, and any invocation of the 25th Amendment, though temporary removal does not settle this market. Recent reports confirm Democrats are advancing impeachment efforts, but without Senate backing, removal remains improbable [2]. Watch for statements from Cabinet members, Vice President actions, or congressional leadership shifts that could alter the political landscape. As of early July 2026, no credible signal suggests imminent resignation or removal, keeping the market’s low probability intact [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Trump out as President before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.