Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A

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Market context

This market covers the Upper Bracket final in Counter-Strike 2 between Acend and Sharks Esports, scheduled for 4:15 PM ET on 25 June 2026 as part of the Super Draculan Season 1 Group A. The match is a Best of 3 series with a $75,000 prize pool, and it marks the first competitive encounter between these two teams.

Historically, when a 0% crowd-implied probability appears in a BO3 esports match, it often signals a severe mismatch in form or ranking rather than a guaranteed cancellation. In this case, Sharks hold a clear advantage: ranked #33 to #37 globally compared to Acend’s #59 to #80, with Sharks winning 64% of their maps over the past year versus Acend’s 56% recent inconsistency. Strafe users predict an 81.8% win rate for Sharks, mirroring how historical underdogs in similar ranking gaps rarely overturn such odds unless a key injury or lineup change occurs mid-tournament.

Traders should monitor official lineup announcements and map veto results, particularly the likelihood of Nuke being banned (91% first-banned rate) or Mirage being picked, as these directly impact Sharks’ 72% Inferno win rate versus Acend’s weaker Nuke preference. Any sudden roster swap for Acend—such as starter SPELLAN or REDSTAR being replaced—would be a critical catalyst, though no such news has emerged from Strafe or Liquipedia as of 7 PM UTC. The settlement window closes 25 June at 22:35 UTC, leaving little time for late developments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.