Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs Bounty Hunters Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-3.5) vs Keyd (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-6.5) vs Keyd (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs Bounty Hunters Esports (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs Bounty Hunters Esports (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BHE (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs Bounty Hunters Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-3.5) vs Keyd (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs Bounty Hunters Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-9.5) vs Bounty Hunters Esports (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs Bounty Hunters Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-6.5) vs Keyd (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-3.5) vs Keyd (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Bounty Hunters Esports face Keyd in the Upper Bracket quarterfinal of the BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playoffs, a Best-of-3 Counter-Strike 2 match scheduled for 12:00PM ET on 15 July. The market currently implies a 0% chance of Keyd winning, reflecting Bounty Hunters’ dominant recent trajectory against the Brazilian side.
Historical data heavily skews toward Bounty Hunters, who have won four of their six recorded head-to-head encounters, including a decisive 2–0 victory at ESL Challenger League Season 51 just nine days prior and a 2–1 win in CCT Season 3 South American Series #1 in May [7][5][10]. Even when Keyd has secured wins—such as the 2–1 result in CCT Season 3 South American Series #9 on 5 March—they have consistently required three maps, whereas Bounty Hunters’ recent form shows a 4-win, 1-loss streak with stable roster performance centred on pepe’s 1.12 rating [1][5][7]. The 0% implied probability aligns with bookmaker odds consistently favouring Bounty Hunters at 1.51–1.64 across recent fixtures [2][4].
Traders should monitor official BetBoom RUSH B! announcements for any roster changes or match delays, as the settlement window closes only if the match is not played, ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner. No recent injury or suspension news has been reported for either side, and both teams maintain stable line-ups, with Keyd’s lash (1.10 rating) as their primary counter to pepe [7]. Given the single-elimination format and shared strength on Mirage (62% win rate for both), map veto strategy will be a critical early catalyst [7].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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