Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: BTF (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs Rune Eaters (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs Rune Eaters (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-9.5) vs Rune Eaters (+9.5) | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs Butterfly (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-6.5) vs Rune Eaters (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Rune Eaters (-6.5) vs Butterfly (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Rune Eaters (-3.5) vs Butterfly (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-6.5) vs Rune Eaters (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Butterfly meet Rune Eaters in a best-of-three Round of 16 tie in the CCT Europe Series #6 playoffs, with both teams listed at full strength in the pre-match team sheets and no obvious late roster changes in the available match listings.[1][3][6] The market’s 100% YES price is consistent with the event appearing to be a live, scheduled knockout fixture rather than an abandoned one, but settlement still depends on the series actually beginning and producing a winner before the seven-day backstop in the rules window.[3][4]
On form, Butterfly arrive with a sharper short-term profile: Bo3’s data shows a 0.70 win rate over both the recent month and the recent half-year, plus reliable map wins on Mirage and Nuke, while Inferno has been a clear weakness.[1] Rune Eaters have also been winning, including a 2–1 result over UNiTY on 30 July, and Strafe notes they have taken four of their last five matches; the same source says this is the first recorded meeting between the teams, so there is no direct head-to-head to lean on.[6][9] That combination supports reading the price as more about bracket certainty than mismatch-specific history.
For traders, the key catalysts are administrative rather than injury-driven: official match start time, whether the Round of 16 is pushed within the playoff schedule, and any last-minute bracket updates from tournament pages or live scoreboards.[2][3][5] Liquipedia lists the playoffs as single-elimination Bo3s, so any delay or format change would be material only if it affects whether the series is played and completed inside the settlement window.[3][12]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT… on World Cup 2026 Favorites
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →