Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: IMP (-1.5) vs Isurus (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-6.5) vs Isurus (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-9.5) vs Isurus (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-6.5) vs Isurus (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-9.5) vs Isurus (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-12.5) vs Isurus (+12.5) | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is the Quarterfinal 1 match between Imperial Esports and Isurus Gaming in the CCT South America Series 3 Playoffs, scheduled for 3:00PM ET on 8 July 2026. Imperial has already secured a 2–0 victory over Isurus in this series, winning Game 1 13–8 on Mirage and Game 2 13–11 on Nuke, with decenty leading as top fragger with 40 kills and noway recording 16 assists[1]. This result confirms Imperial as the match winner, aligning with the crowd-implied 100% YES probability for the “Imperial” settlement.
Historically, when a team wins a Best-of-3 series 2–0 before the settlement window closes, prediction markets resolve decisively to that team, as seen in prior CCT South America events where 2–0 finishes triggered immediate settlements without tie or delay clauses[1]. In this case, the prior head-to-head record between the two teams spans nine matches, with Isurus holding a slight edge (5 wins) over Imperial (4 wins), yet Imperial’s recent 2–0 win on 8 October 2022 in the same tournament series underscores their capacity to dominate in high-stakes qualifiers[1].
Traders should monitor official CCT South America announcements for any post-match procedural updates, such as disqualifications or replay orders, though no such dependencies are currently active[1]. The match’s completion status is confirmed, with no indication of cancellation, tie, or delay beyond the seven-day threshold, ensuring the market will resolve to “Imperial” as per the settlement rules[1]. No suspensions, injuries, or line-up changes have been reported for either side since the match concluded[1].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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