Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: NV (-1.5) vs Benched gods (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BG (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
NEW VISION and Benched gods are scheduled to meet in a best-of-three at the CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #6 Group C, with the market effectively pricing a near-certain NEW VISION win. That looks aggressive against the broader form profile: in the one recorded head-to-head, NEW VISION beat Benched gods 2-0 in May, but more recent form data shows Benched gods arriving with the stronger recent results, while NEW VISION have been on a poor run in their last five matches.[2][3][4]
For traders, the key risk is not just match quality but whether the game actually starts and finishes inside the settlement window. The match is listed for 23 July and has been shown as not started in live match trackers, so any schedule slip, server issue, or qualifier dependency could matter if completion drifts beyond seven days from the planned date.[2][3] Team news also matters: Benched gods’ recent line-up has included BloodyK, f1chper, K014NZ, MisterHyesos and Wign, while previous match pages show roster variation across events, so late substitution information would be the clearest catalyst to watch before first map vetoes.[1][7]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #6 Group C. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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