Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
87% | 13% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
87% | 13% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 87% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 52% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: DENDELE CS (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-6.5) vs FURIA (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 48% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 47% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 45% |
| Match Winner | 40% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 31% |
| Map 2 Winner | 27% |
| Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) | 27% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-6.5) vs DENDELE CS (+6.5) | 25% |
Market context
Sharks and FURIA meet in the Round of 32 of the BLAST Bounty Qualifier on 24 July at 1:30PM ET, competing for progression in a best-of-three format. The 57% crowd probability favours Sharks, reflecting their recent standing within the competitive Counter-Strike landscape, though FURIA's track record in qualifier tournaments introduces genuine uncertainty around the outcome.
FURIA have historically performed well in open-bracket qualifiers, where their aggressive playstyle and deep roster depth create matchup problems for teams relying on established systems. Sharks, conversely, have shown inconsistent results against top-32 opposition in 2024, with their wins concentrated against lower-seeded teams. Head-to-head records between these sides remain sparse in recent months, making direct precedent less informative than broader form trajectories. The 57% reading suggests the market is pricing Sharks as slight favourites based on recent LAN appearances rather than dominance in this specific qualifier format.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations through 23 July, as both organisations occasionally field adjusted lineups for regional qualifiers. BLAST's official schedule updates and any last-minute stand-in announcements will clarify whether either team operates at full strength. The seven-day delay clause in settlement terms carries weight here; fixture congestion in the BLAST calendar occasionally forces rescheduling, and any postponement beyond 31 July triggers a 50-50 resolution. Match-day technical issues or forfeiture scenarios remain low-probability but carry outsized resolution impact given the qualifier's early-round status.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Sharks vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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