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Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG - More Markets

How the prediction market is pricing "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG - More Markets" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Both Teams Beat Roshan 100% Both Teams Destroy Barracks 100% Any Player Ultra Kill 100% Ends in Daytime 100% Volume: $861K Liquidity: $331K Closes: 1 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG - More Markets

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Beat Roshan100%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks100%
Any Player Ultra Kill100%
Ends in Daytime100%
First Blood in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 85.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 90.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 95.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 105.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 100.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 110.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 115.5 in Game 1?100%
Ends in Daytime1%
Any Player Rampage1%
Both Teams Beat Roshan1%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks1%
Any Player Ultra Kill1%
Any Player Rampage1%
First Blood in Game 2?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 125.5 in Game 1?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?1%
Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 2?1%
Game 1 Winner0%
Game 2 Winner0%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2?0%

Market context

Team Falcons versus OG is a best-of-two Dota 2 series with the market currently pricing **0% YES**, which is only consistent with a very hard pass on OG or a likely misunderstanding of the settlement rules. Recent head-to-head data leans Falcons’ way: one archive shows Team Falcons have won 3 of 6 meetings with 2 draws, while another match-history page records 5 Falcons wins in the most recent 7-series sample, including a 2-0 in DreamLeague Season 27 in December 2025 and a 1-0 at BLAST Slam VI in February 2026[1][2][5][8]. That makes the current zero price look detached from the matchup history unless the market is tied to a specific “more markets” leg that is already effectively locked by the structure of the event.

The key trader watchpoints are roster confirmation, stand-ins, and whether either side arrives from a congested event schedule. Falcons have been active through 2026 with recent series against top-tier opposition, including a 1-1 draw with OG at ESL One Birmingham 2026 and a 1-0 win over OG at BLAST Slam VII in May 2026, while OG’s recent results have been mixed across comparable elite events[2][6]. If either team posts last-minute substitution news, that matters more here than broad form, because best-of-two markets often swing on drafting strength and laning stability rather than raw win rate; no injury angle is relevant in Dota 2, so late lineup announcements and tournament scheduling are the real catalysts[5][16].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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