Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 85.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 90.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 95.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 105.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 100.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 110.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 115.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 125.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Team Falcons versus OG is a best-of-two Dota 2 series with the market currently pricing **0% YES**, which is only consistent with a very hard pass on OG or a likely misunderstanding of the settlement rules. Recent head-to-head data leans Falcons’ way: one archive shows Team Falcons have won 3 of 6 meetings with 2 draws, while another match-history page records 5 Falcons wins in the most recent 7-series sample, including a 2-0 in DreamLeague Season 27 in December 2025 and a 1-0 at BLAST Slam VI in February 2026[1][2][5][8]. That makes the current zero price look detached from the matchup history unless the market is tied to a specific “more markets” leg that is already effectively locked by the structure of the event.
The key trader watchpoints are roster confirmation, stand-ins, and whether either side arrives from a congested event schedule. Falcons have been active through 2026 with recent series against top-tier opposition, including a 1-1 draw with OG at ESL One Birmingham 2026 and a 1-0 win over OG at BLAST Slam VII in May 2026, while OG’s recent results have been mixed across comparable elite events[2][6]. If either team posts last-minute substitution news, that matters more here than broad form, because best-of-two markets often swing on drafting strength and laning stability rather than raw win rate; no injury angle is relevant in Dota 2, so late lineup announcements and tournament scheduling are the real catalysts[5][16].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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