Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: LVLUP (-1.5) vs RE.Arise (+1.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 91% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
Market context
Level UP meet RE.Arise in a best-of-three EPL Masters Group B series, and the market’s 100% YES pricing reflects a clear favourite rather than a settled result. Level UP arrive with the stronger recent body of work: bo3.gg lists a 73% win rate over the past half-year, a recent EPL Season 39 title run, and an AI projection of a 71% win chance with a 2-0 scoreline, while also noting two straight losses in their latest matches as a short-term drag on momentum.[1] RE.Arise have been more uneven, but they have still taken wins in recent series and remain capable of taking maps when draft conditions suit them.[1][4]
The historical frame is thin but useful: the teams have no meeting in the last six months, and one source says they have not played each other at all in the current rosters, while another notes a 1-1 split when those line-ups did meet.[1][15] That makes the current probability read more as a form and roster-stability signal than a head-to-head signal. Strafe ranks Level UP at #28 and says both sides have won three of their last five, which supports the view that this is not a mismatch so much as a match where Level UP’s higher ceiling and cleaner recent results are doing the work in the market.[8]
For traders, the key catalysts are whether the listed starters actually appear unchanged and whether the series starts on schedule, as Dota markets are sensitive to late stand-ins, administrative delays, and map forfeits. The published line-ups show Level UP with queezy, WoE, bb3px, Ainkrad and Htrd, and RE.Arise with waveformn, yowaai, Ethereal, ani-san and Ankou, but roster pages also flag recent squad churn on both sides, which can matter more than raw record in a BO3 draft environment.[1][15] Sofascore and related listings place the match at 09:00 UTC on 6 August, so any timetable slip or substitution news before that window would be the main thing moving the price.[2][13]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Level UP vs RE.Arise (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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