Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 86% |
| Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 75% |
| Game 2 Winner | 66% |
| Game 3 Winner | 62% |
| Game 4 Winner | 60% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 55% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 49% |
| Game Handicap: LOS (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 47% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 22% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 5% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 1% |
| Game Handicap: FUR (-2.5) vs LOS (+2.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: los vs furia esports (bo5) - cblol playoffs stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Upper Bracket Semifinals 2 match between LOS and FURIA Esports in the CBLOL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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Trade LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs on World Cup 2026 Favorites
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