Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 97% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 90% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: KHK (-1.5) vs Team Orange Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% |
Market context
Team Orange Gaming and Kaufland Hangry Knights meet in a Prime League 1st Division Bo3, and the market is priced at **0% YES**, which is consistent with a match already being regarded as unavailable or no longer progressing towards a standard winner settlement. Their recent meetings have been split: Team Orange Gaming won the spring series 2–1 in May, but Kaufland Hangry Knights took the most recent head-to-head 1–0 in July, so there is no clear long-run dominance to anchor a live price here.[2][5][13][16]
The broader framing is mixed rather than one-sided. One recent match index shows Team Orange Gaming ahead in the historical series 4–3, while other databases put the overall head-to-head slightly in Kaufland Hangry Knights’ favour, reflecting how much the sample depends on which seasons and formats are counted.[3][15][16] Form has also been uneven: Strafe lists Kaufland Hangry Knights as 3–2 over their last five, versus 1–4 for Team Orange Gaming, which would ordinarily support KHK as the stronger side entering a normal Bo3.[3]
For traders, the key catalyst is whether the fixture is confirmed as actually going ahead and whether any late roster or schedule change appears before the settlement window closes. The available match pages still identify the pairing as a scheduled Prime League meeting, but no fresh lineup bulletin is shown in the supplied sources, and one major market implication is that if the match is not played, ends level, or slips beyond seven days without a winner, it settles 50-50 rather than on a team result.[1][7][16]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (… on World Cup 2026 Favorites
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →