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Valorant: Team Heretics vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

How the prediction market is pricing "Valorant: Team Heretics vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Map 1 Winner 100% Match Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 100% Volume: $250K Liquidity: $335K Closes: 3 Jul 2026
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Valorant: Team Heretics vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Match Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs All Gamers (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-3.5) vs Team Heretics (+3.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-4.5) vs Team Heretics (+4.5)100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5)100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5)100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.51%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5)1%
Map 2 Winner0%
Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs All Gamers (+3.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs All Gamers (+3.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-7.5) vs AG.AL International (+7.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-6.5) vs Team Heretics (+6.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-5.5) vs Team Heretics (+5.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-7.5) vs Team Heretics (+7.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5)0%

Market context

Team Heretics face All Gamers in the opening Group D match of the 2026 Valorant Esports World Cup, a Best of 3 series scheduled for 11:00 AM local time in Riyadh. The crowd-implied probability of 100% YES for a Team Heretics victory reflects their status as the newly crowned EWC champions, having just reverse-swept Fnatic 3-2 in the grand final to claim the title[1][6]. This mirrors historical precedents where tournament winners, fresh from a decisive final, dominate their subsequent group-stage opponents with overwhelming confidence and tactical superiority, often rendering the odds a near-certainty rather than a speculative bet[1].

The catalysts for any trader to monitor centre on the confirmed line-up stability and the absence of suspensions or injuries for the Spanish squad, whose roster remains intact with Boo, benjyfishy, MiniBoo, RieNs, and Wo0t[8]. While All Gamers have won four of their last five matches, they sit ranked #62 globally, a stark contrast to Team Heretics’ #19 ranking and their 90.5% community prediction favour[2]. Crucially, this is the first head-to-head encounter between the two sides, meaning no prior tactical weaknesses exist for All Gamers to exploit[2]. Traders should watch for the official match start confirmation at 11:00 AM, as any delay beyond seven days would trigger a 50-50 resolution, though current schedules indicate a smooth commencement[2]. The overwhelming Strafe user consensus and the team’s recent 4-0 start against Gen.G further solidify the real-world expectation of a Heretics win[2][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Valorant: Team Heretics vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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