Ethereum above 2026 on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on whether the Binance 1-minute ETH/USDT candle closes above a specified threshold at noon ET on 26 June 2026, with the current crowd-implied probability sitting at 100% for a "Yes". Such certainty is unusual in crypto price markets, where volatility typically prevents absolute consensus; historically, similar 100% implied probabilities have only appeared when the threshold was set far below recent trading ranges, such as when Ethereum traded near $1,664 in mid-June 2026 while the target was set below $1,500[2]. Comparable cases from Polymarket show that when thresholds align with current support levels like $1,554–$1,560, probabilities drop sharply to 57% for lower ranges, indicating that the 100% figure here likely reflects a trivially low barrier rather than genuine price certainty[1][4].

Traders should monitor whether Ethereum can reclaim the 100-period Simple Moving Average at $2,088, a level that has repeatedly rejected upward moves since the breakout above $2,500 earlier in 2026[3]. The immediate support zone sits near $1,967–$1,990, but the RSI at 39.28 suggests limited upward momentum unless buyers capture $2,088 with force, which would target $2,200[3]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in Bitcoin's support at the 200-week SMA near $60,000, as crypto market cap dominance remains tied to broader sentiment, with Ethereum currently holding 9.09% of total crypto market cap[5]. No major announcements are scheduled for 26 June, but the resolution hinges entirely on Binance's 1-minute candle data, making exchange-specific liquidity spikes or technical glitches the only real dependencies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.