Croatia vs. Ghana

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Round of 16 clash between Croatia and Ghana takes place this Saturday at 17:00 local time (21:00 GMT) at Philadelphia Stadium, with the match kicking off in just under 19 hours. Current market pricing implies a 54% probability that Croatia will win, reflecting their recent 1-0 victory over Panama compared to Ghana’s goalless draw with England. This probability sits in a zone historically typical for matches where a team with superior recent scoring form faces a defensively resilient opponent that has struggled to convert possession into goals in the tournament so far.

Traders must monitor the final team news announcements expected before the 15:00 ET deadline, specifically regarding potential suspensions or injuries in Croatia’s midfield and Ghana’s attacking line. ESPN reports that referee Drew Thomas Fischer, known for a strict interpretation of fouls, will oversee the fixture, which could significantly impact the flow if either side relies on aggressive pressing. The decisive catalyst will be the confirmed line-ups released shortly before kick-off, as any absence of key players like Croatia’s top scorer or Ghana’s primary winger could rapidly shift the implied probability away from the current 54% baseline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Croatia vs. Ghana across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.