Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots on target | 90% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Brian Brobbey: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Cody Gakpo: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Wout Weghorst: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Brahim Díaz: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Guus Til: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Guus Til: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Guus Til: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Guus Til: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Mark Flekken: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Mark Flekken: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Mark Flekken: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Mark Flekken: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup knockout-stage match between the Netherlands and Morocco, scheduled for 29 June at 9:00 PM ET in Guadalupe, Mexico. Historical World Cup knockout ties involving a favoured European side against a disciplined African team often produce tight, low-scoring affairs, with unders on goal lines proving the most consistent betting trend[2]. Current models project a 1–1 draw as the most likely correct score, suggesting the 50% YES probability for player props hinges on both teams scoring rather than a dominant victory[3][5].
Traders must monitor final line-up confirmations for the Netherlands, particularly any injury news affecting key attackers like Cody Gakpo or Memphis Depar, as Morocco’s defensive organisation has already neutralised high-calibre opponents in this tournament[7]. The settlement window closes shortly after the match, so any late suspensions or tactical shifts—such as Morocco opting for a more conservative 4–4–2—will directly impact player-prop outcomes[9]. Recent analysis from The Lines highlights that over 10.5 total corners is a strong value, indicating high pressure that could drive individual player stats[7].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Netherlands vs. Morocco - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade Netherlands vs. Morocco - Player Props on World Cup 2026 Favorites
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →