Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The FIFA World Cup Group F clash between Tunisia and the Netherlands at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City is set to begin at 6:00 PM CDT on 25 June 2026, with the market currently pricing an exact score outcome at 9% despite the Dutch sitting top of the group and Tunisia bottom with zero points. Historical precedents for mismatches in World Cup group stages where a dominant side faces a team with no points often see high-scoring affairs, yet exact scores remain rare; for instance, when Germany beat Saudi Arabia 8-0 in 2002 or Spain defeated Australia 3-1 in 2010, the specific exact score markets rarely resolved positively, reflecting the volatility of goal timing even in predictable results. The 9% probability aligns with similar cases where a top-four European nation meets an African team with poor defensive form, yet the narrow margin suggests traders are wary of Tunisia’s recent tendency to concede early and the Netherlands’ inconsistent finishing in tight matches.

Key catalysts for this market include the confirmed line-ups released by FIFA, which show Netherlands striker Wout Weghorst and Tunisia’s new manager Hervé Renard both available, though Renard has admitted defensive frailties remain a concern after Tunisia conceded first in all four Group F matches [3]. Traders must monitor the pre-match press conference for any late injury updates on Netherlands midfielder Teun Koopmeiners, whose absence could blunt the Dutch attack, and watch for weather conditions in Kansas City, as heavy rain could suppress goal totals and shift the exact score probability further away from high-scoring outcomes. Recent analysis from Sky Sports highlights that Tunisia has conceded an average of 4 goals per game in their last three matches, while the Netherlands have scored first in 80% of their recent fixtures, suggesting a likely Dutch lead but leaving the exact final tally uncertain [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.