Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s private market valuation must reach the listed threshold on Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) before 31 December 2026 to resolve this market as “Yes”, with the current NPM print at $1.14 trillion as of July 2026[2]. The crowd-implied 12% probability suggests traders doubt the company will surge far beyond its latest $965 billion Series H-1 round, which occurred in May 2026 after a $65 billion raise[6][9]. Historically, secondary-market valuations for top AI firms have outpaced headline financing rounds by 15–20% within months, as seen with Anthropic’s own +249% share price performance in 2025 and OpenAI’s similar trajectory[3][5]. However, NPM prints are gated to trading days and updated daily, meaning volatile sentiment or capital inflows must be sustained to push the official figure higher, not just announced in press releases[1][2].

Traders should monitor upcoming funding announcements, computing-capacity deals, and revenue milestones that could trigger secondary-market repricing, particularly any follow-on rounds beyond the May 2026 $65 billion deal[6]. Reuters reported Anthropic’s goal to enhance Claude’s computing capabilities and expand products, a catalyst that could drive further valuation jumps if enterprise adoption accelerates[6]. The NPM data lag—updated at 1:00 PM ET the following day—means traders must watch for real-time tape activity on Nasdaq Private Market, where Anthropic’s share price recently hit $675.76[1]. With Polymarket pricing a $1.9 trillion even-odds outcome at 65% above today’s $1.14 trillion, the gap between current NPM and prediction-market expectations remains wide, making the 12% YES probability a reflection of uncertainty over whether secondary demand can sustain a multi-hundred-billion-dollar leap before year-end[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.