Fed Decision in July?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee will convene on 28–29 July 2026 to decide whether to alter the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, currently 3.75%. With persistent inflation pressures anchelling expectations, the market has priced a 78% probability that rates remain unchanged, reflecting caution ahead of the 14 July CPI release.

Historically, mid-year holds have dominated when inflation exceeds 4%, as seen in the three consecutive pauses since December 2025. The dot plot now signals nine officials anticipate at least one hike this year, shifting the median end-2026 rate projection from 3.4% to 3.8%, yet the immediate July decision remains tilted toward stability given resilient labour data and elevated Treasury yields[1][2].

Traders must monitor the 14 July CPI report, which could trigger a 25 basis point hike if energy costs surge further amid Middle East tensions. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of cut-leaning language in June’s policy statement underscores a hawkish pivot, while geopolitical volatility from the Iran conflict remains a critical swing factor before resolution[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Fed Decision in July? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.