Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Final at The International 2026 North America Closed Qualifier, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria faced the bug in a Best of 3 match originally set for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June. The contest has concluded with 4 Anchors and Ilmeria securing a decisive 2–0 victory, confirming their path forward in the playoffs despite entering the match as a significant underdog with market confidence initially hovering near 55% [3][4].

Historically, lower bracket finals in regional qualifiers often see significant form reversals when underdogs overcome early deficits, mirroring cases where teams with lower world rankings (41 vs 48) outperform expectations through superior tactical execution [4][5]. The 50% crowd-implied probability at the time of the match reflected this volatility, yet the actual 2–0 result underscores how lower bracket pressure can amplify the performance gap between teams with comparable rankings but divergent recent momentum [2][5].

Traders should monitor official roster announcements for the bug, particularly regarding recent player upgrades such as the inclusion of "monkey" and the potential arrival of GG Boom, which may signal further instability in their lineup [6]. While the match outcome is now verified, any future qualifiers involving the bug will depend on whether these roster changes stabilise their performance or introduce further inconsistency, as noted in recent community coverage of their "large collection of players formerly Aros" [6]. The settlement window remains open until 27 June 2026, 02:00 UTC, to confirm final resolution details [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.