Türkiye vs. United States

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group D fixture between Türkiye and the United States takes place on Thursday, 25 June 2026 at Los Angeles Stadium in Inglewood, California, with kickoff set for 7 p.m. PT. The market currently prices a Türkiye victory at 23% YES, implying the United States holds a distinct advantage despite Türkiye’s elite possession metrics.

Historical precedents for this matchup suggest high volatility: the two sides last met in June 2025 in Hartford, where the USA lost 2-1 despite Jack McGlynn scoring their lone goal, and all six meetings are split evenly with two wins, two losses, and one draw each. This equilibrium mirrors recent World Cup group-stage games where possession-heavy teams like Türkiye (73.8% average, ranked first globally) face defensively organised opponents like the USA, often producing narrow margins where a single error decides the outcome. The current 23% probability aligns with Türkiye’s tendency to beat giants on a good day but also their vulnerability to conceding 1.5 goals per game, a stat that ranks them 28th worldwide.

Traders must monitor the official line-up announcement released by the USMNT and Türkiye federations before 5 p.m. PT, as any injury to key midfielders or suspensions could drastically shift the line. Recent coverage from US Soccer confirms both teams are finalising their squads for this Group D finale, with USA coach emphasizing consistency while Türkiye’s form remains unpredictable. Watch for late press updates on player fitness from sources like ESPN or FOX Sports, as a single absence in Türkiye’s attacking line could invalidate their possession dominance and push the market further toward the USA’s -110 odds. The settlement window closes at 02:00 UTC on 26 June, so all catalysts must be weighed before kickoff.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. United States on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.