Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel has not yet publicly accepted the Board of Peace roadmap, and that is the core hurdle for this market. Reporting since 30 July has repeatedly stressed that the framework hinges on sequenced steps, with Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal and a new civilian administration all tied together rather than treated as a clean unilateral endorsement. Israel’s immediate reaction was negative: it said the proposal did not adequately meet its demand that Hamas be stripped of weapons and Gaza demilitarised, while saying there would be no withdrawal from the Yellow Line until that happens.[1][2][5]

The 11% implied probability fits a market that is pricing in a late reversal, a narrow modified acceptance, or no formal acceptance at all. Comparable Gaza ceasefire and transition efforts have often produced preliminary statements or conditional approvals before collapsing over implementation details, and the current plan itself is described as a phased process that could stretch for months, with Israeli troop movements and security guarantees dependent on verified disarmament.[6][9][19] That creates a high bar for a clean “Israel agrees” headline by the deadline, especially if Jerusalem insists on changes to sequencing or enforcement.

For traders, the key catalysts are fresh statements from the Israeli cabinet, the prime minister’s office, or U.S.-brokered negotiators, plus any revised text that softens the disarmament or withdrawal conditions. Reuters reported on 30 July that the plan called for a surge in aid, a civilian Palestinian administration and an international force, but later coverage noted continued Israeli strikes and renewed doubt about revival, which can harden rather than soften Israel’s position.[14][11] Watch for any language that Israel “accepts in principle”, “accepts with reservations”, or endorses a successor framework; this market only resolves Yes if Israel clearly accepts the roadmap as described or a broadly recognised replacement by 7 August.[1][5][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

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Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.