Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by 2026?

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Market context

Israel and Iran have no diplomatic channel, and their military hostilities remain entrenched with zero public indication of a permanent peace agreement. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% reflects this reality: decades of failed negotiations, including the Oslo Accords and Camp David summit, show that US-led peace talks between Israel and Arab or regional powers routinely collapse under settlement expansion and broken promises[1]. No comparable case exists where Israel and Iran moved from active conflict to a definitive, lasting end of military hostilities; even recent US-Iran ceasefires in the 2026 Iran war were violated repeatedly and extended indefinitely without resolving core tensions[5].

Traders should monitor three catalysts: any formal announcement of direct Israel-Iran talks, a shift in US policy toward including Israel in US-Iran negotiations, and Hezbollah’s operational posture in Lebanon, as the US-Iran memorandum explicitly covers the Israel-Hezbollah front but Israel has refused to withdraw forces from Lebanon[2][4]. A recent BBC report confirms the US and Iran signed a preliminary peace deal on 14 June 2026, yet it excludes Israel and leaves nuclear and missile issues for 60-day negotiations[2]. Until Israel is formally integrated into such a framework, the probability of a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by May 2026 remains effectively zero.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.