Bitcoin price on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the final closing price of the one-minute Binance candle for BTC/USDT at noon Eastern Time on 25 June 2026. Current market data shows Bitcoin trading near $61,274, having fallen $1,377 from the previous day and sitting roughly $46,000 below its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025[1][6]. Historical volatility in early 2026 saw prices dip to $60,074 in February before oscillating between $65,000 and $73,000, framing the current 0% probability for a higher range as a reflection of this recent consolidation rather than a collapse[6].

Traders should monitor the scheduled release of US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary, which often dictate short-term crypto movements, alongside any announcements regarding institutional ETF flows[1]. Recent commentary from Binance founder Changpeng Zhao suggests the asset has bottomed out, yet the market remains cautious given the $1,379 daily drop and the broader trend of institutional adoption slowing in the first quarter[1][10]. The Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 77% probability to the $60,000–$62,000 range, indicating that while a higher bracket is unlikely, a total collapse below $58,000 is also not the consensus view[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.