Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

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Market context

Iran has not issued a public, official commitment to stop attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, despite urgent US demands for such a statement to keep negotiations moving. Senior American officials explicitly require Iran to declare that all channels are open and that no ships will be targeted, framing this as a prerequisite for a favourable outcome in talks scheduled in Oman and Switzerland [1][3]. The current 2% probability reflects the stark reality that Tehran has repeatedly rejected unconditional guarantees, recently asserting that reopening the strait is “impossible” if the US maintains a blockade and insisting it will never relinquish authority over the waterway [2].

Historical precedents show Iran treating the strait as leverage rather than a neutral corridor, often permitting “non-hostile” transit only while charging fees or excluding US and Israeli-linked vessels [4]. Past closures and attacks, including the capture of Greek and Panama-flagged cargo ships by the IRGC, demonstrate a pattern of conditional access rather than blanket policy shifts [2]. Unlike previous ceasefire moments where maritime traffic resumed temporarily, Iran has not made a declarative policy statement renouncing attacks, and internal power struggles have further complicated deal-making [6].

Traders should monitor the outcome of Sunday’s negotiations in Switzerland and any subsequent public statements from Iranian leadership before the 23:59 ET settlement deadline. The US has warned that without a public pledge, there will be “not a good outcome for them,” suggesting sanctions or tolls may follow if Iran refuses [1][7]. Key catalysts include whether mediators secure a written commitment, if Iran announces a permanent reopening without tolls, or if the IRGC resumes halting vessels as it did earlier this week [2][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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