Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted, with daily transit calls plummeting to near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 vessels. This standstill stems from ongoing US-Iran military strikes, including Washington’s weekend assault on Iranian sites and Tehran’s retaliatory targeting of a US base, which have driven commercial shipping executives to await a peace deal for safe passage. Even during a brief two-week ceasefire in April that reopened the strait for a day, traffic failed to recover, with vessel counts dropping from 100 per day in February to just six per day between March and May, as insurers refuse coverage and war-risk premiums surge over 16 times normal rates[1][2].

Historical precedents frame the current 0% probability as rational, given that previous ceasefires produced only fleeting reopenings without sustained traffic recovery. The April 21 reopening closed again within 24 hours, and despite a June 17 agreement guaranteeing immediate commercial navigation, only 25 vessels passed through on the first day of implementation, far below the 140-vessel normal flow[2][4]. With 150+ ships stranded and throughput under 2% of normal capacity, the strait remains effectively closed, making a return to 60 daily arrivals before July 7 statistically improbable without a definitive, enforced peace settlement[2].

Traders must monitor the July 19 deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a prerequisite in the June 17 memorandum of understanding for Iran to restore pre-war traffic levels[4]. Key catalysts include any confirmation of unhindered vessel movement from US Central Command, the resolution of the International Maritime Organization’s stalled evacuation plan for 600 stranded ships, and shifts in war-risk insurance premiums that currently deter transit[2][6]. Until the blockade lifts and Iran commits to unimpeded navigation without tolls or territorial restrictions, the 7-day moving average required for a “Yes” resolution will remain unattainable[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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