Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically contested waterways, with roughly one-fifth of global oil transit passing through its 21-nautical-mile width between Iran and Oman. Warship transits by non-regional powers remain rare but have occurred during periods of heightened tension, particularly when the United States or allied navies conduct freedom-of-navigation operations or respond to Iranian provocations. The current 4% probability reflects the baseline expectation that routine transit patterns will persist without major escalation through mid-2026.

Historical precedent shows warship passages spike during specific flashpoints rather than occurring as steady-state activity. The 2019–2020 period saw multiple US Navy transits following the Soleimani assassination and subsequent Iranian ballistic missile strikes, whilst routine passages by British and French vessels have occurred during extended deployments to the Persian Gulf. Between these episodes, months pass without notable warship movements through the strait itself, as most naval activity occurs in the wider Gulf rather than the narrow chokepoint. The low implied probability reflects this episodic pattern—absent a triggering incident, transits remain infrequent.

Traders should monitor Iranian nuclear negotiations and any breakdown in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action framework, which could prompt renewed Western naval posturing. Announcements of US carrier strike group deployments, Israeli military operations affecting regional stability, or Iranian threats to close the strait would all serve as leading indicators. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional defence outlets should be tracked for confirmation of any actual transit events, as official military statements often lag behind initial sightings by weeks.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.