Highest temperature in Seoul on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with resolution based on Wunderground’s daily maximum in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows Seoul’s July highs typically centre around 27°C, rarely dipping below 24°C or exceeding 33°C, while monsoon moisture often caps daytime peaks under typical midsummer conditions[1][2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome appears inconsistent with the market’s frontrunner of 27°C at 33% and 28°C at 26%, suggesting a mispricing or liquidity gap rather than a genuine absence of plausible scenarios[1].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for Incheon on 7 July, as sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover can alter the daily maximum within hours. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs ranging from 79°F to 94°F (26°C to 34°C), with the average high at 85°F (29°C), meaning temperatures near 27–28°C remain statistically probable[3]. No major weather disruptions or official suspensions have been announced, but the onset of the monsoon season—marked by fast-moving showers and rising humidity—could suppress peak temperatures if heavy rain arrives before midday[5]. Watch for real-time Wunderground data releases, as these are the sole resolution source and any delay or anomaly could impact settlement clarity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.