Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, Hong Kong will record its highest daily temperature, a figure that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to any specific range. This real-world event hinges on the Hong Kong Observatory’s finalised “Absolute Daily Max” data, which will be published only after the relevant “Daily Extract” is complete. Traders must understand that the market cannot resolve until this official data is released, creating a hard dependency on the Observatory’s schedule rather than speculative forecasts.

Historical July climatology in Hong Kong consistently shows daytime maximums around 31°C, with long-term averages placing highs between 30.4°C and 31°C and overnight lows near 26°C[2][5]. The 2026 seasonal forecast indicates normal to above-normal temperatures for July–September, driven by current ENSO conditions and climate models[4]. Despite this, the crowd-implied 0% probability suggests either a mispricing or an expectation that the temperature will fall outside all offered ranges, though past data strongly supports a high in the 30–32°C band[2].

Key catalysts include the Observatory’s publication timeline for the July 2026 Daily Extract and any sudden tropical storm activity, which could suppress temperatures; on average, 2.2 tropical storms affect Hong Kong in July[2]. Traders should monitor the Observatory’s official updates at hko.gov.hk for the finalised “Absolute Daily Max” value, as this is the sole resolution source[4]. No recent news has indicated extreme anomalies, but the dependency on official data release remains the critical factor for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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