"The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

Christopher Nolan’s *The Odyssey*, starring Matt Damon and adapted from Homer’s epic, opens in US theatres on 17 July with domestic projections ranging from $80M to $132M, averaging near $118M[3][6]. Early tracking shows record IMAX presales, with 28,000 tickets sold at London’s BFI IMAX in 24 hours alone, shattering prior venue records[4]. The film faces no competing wide releases from major studios that weekend, a structural advantage that historically lifts opening figures for auteur-driven blockbusters[3].

Historical comparables suggest the current 0% YES probability for a sub-$80M opening is misaligned with precedent. Nolan’s *Oppenheimer* tracked at $40M–$50M before surging to $82.4M domestically, while *The Dark Knight* and *Inception* both exceeded early tracking by 20–30%[3]. Box Office Pro now forecasts a $100M–$120M range, and Box Office Theory projects up to $132M, with an average of $118M[6][7]. If presales continue to skew toward premium large formats, a $100M+ domestic launch appears highly probable, ranking among Nolan’s biggest openings excluding the Batman franchise[3][11].

Traders should monitor final studio estimates released 17–19 July, particularly IMAX and PLF (premium large format) attendance data, which will confirm whether the film crosses the $100M threshold[3][5]. Deadline Hollywood notes that exclusive IMAX access for the first three weeks could further amplify weekend totals[15]. A recent Reddit post confirms over 150K tickets sold in the first 24 hours, securing an opening above $100M domestically[2]. The settlement hinges on finalised figures from The Numbers, not preliminary studio estimates, so late adjustments could shift the outcome toward the higher bracket if values land between ranges[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.