"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The market hinges on the domestic three-day opening weekend gross for Angel Studios’ historical epic *Young Washington*, which premiered on July 3, 2026, over the Fourth of July holiday. Friday’s standalone figure already sits at an estimated $7.60M from 2,700 locations, including previews, suggesting a robust start that contradicts the current 0% YES probability for any meaningful bracket. With Saturday and Sunday data still pending final confirmation, the three-day total is poised to exceed early tracking ranges of $23M–$35M, potentially positioning the film as Angel Studios’ biggest theatrical success since *Sound of Freedom*.

Historically, holiday releases with strong Friday leads—particularly patriotic biopics—often see 20–30% weekend lifts, framing the current 0% probability as a misreading of the film’s momentum. Comparable cases like *Braveheart* or *1776* show that early Friday numbers above $7M frequently translate into opening weekends above $25M, making the lower brackets unlikely. The catalysts traders must watch include the finalisation of Saturday and Sunday figures by July 5 evening, the studio’s official weekend announcement (typically Monday morning), and any shifts in competitor performance from *Minions & Monsters*, which could affect total audience share. Recent box office theory forecasts project a domestic opening weekend range of $23M+ for *Young Washington*, reinforcing the likelihood of a higher bracket resolution [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.