Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are barely moving through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transit calls near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60, following a brief reopening on 21 April that closed again the next day amid escalating US-Iran strikes. A memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June now guarantees immediate commercial navigation, with 25 vessels crossing on Thursday—the highest volume since April—yet the strait remains officially closed and over 150 ships stranded, including tankers and bulk carriers, while war-risk insurance premiums sit at extreme levels, over 16 times normal[3][4].

Historically, such chokepoints have rarely sustained sustained traffic above 60 daily calls within weeks after ceasefire deals; the 2026 reopening lasted only 24 hours before closure, and previous crises saw throughput under 2% of normal for months, framing the current 21% YES probability as grounded in precedent rather than optimism[3][6]. Traders must watch the US naval blockade lift deadline of 19 July, when full access to Iranian ports is required under the MOU, and whether Iran fulfils its pledge to restore pre-war traffic levels by the same date, as failure would likely keep calls below the threshold[4]. CNN reports active monitoring of traffic levels through real-time maps, confirming that while movement has resumed, consistency remains unproven and the strait’s operational status hinges on compliance with the agreement’s timeline[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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