GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has still not publicly released a model named **GPT-6**, and the latest concrete signal was that a model long rumoured to be the next step shipped on 23 April 2026 as **GPT-5.5** rather than GPT-6.[1][12][14] That matters for this market because a 0% crowd price implies traders see no credible path to a publicly available, explicitly named GPT-6 before year-end, especially with no official architecture, pricing, or launch date on record.[1][11][12]

The best historical frame is OpenAI’s tendency to reuse or rename model families rather than move straight through numbered releases on a fixed calendar. The “Spud” rollout showed how an anticipated next-generation launch can arrive under a different label, which weakens the case for assuming that any internal successor automatically settles this market yes.[1][12][14] In comparable cases, the market typically needs a clearly branded public release, not merely a preview, private beta, or API-only test, which raises the bar for a year-end resolution.[12][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are any official OpenAI post, model-card update, or ChatGPT/app release note that explicitly names GPT-6 and confirms public access, plus any sign that safety testing has moved from closed evaluation into open sign-ups.[10][12] Watch for timing around product launches and infrastructure updates, because the April 2026 rollout suggests OpenAI can move from pre-training completion to public shipping quickly, but also that the final naming decision can change at the last moment.[1][9][14] Anything short of a general-public release by 31 December would still resolve No under the market rules.[

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for GPT-6 released by…?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.