Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
18% | 82% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
18% | 82% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 18% |
| Jon Ossoff | 15% |
| Gavin Newsom | 13% |
| Josh Shapiro | 6% |
| Kamala Harris | 6% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5% |
| Andy Beshear | 3% |
| Mark Kelly | 3% |
| Wes Moore | 2% |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2% |
| James Talarico | 2% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 1% |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1% |
| Raphael Warnock | 1% |
| Cory Booker | 1% |
| Hunter Biden | 1% |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1% |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1% |
| Ro Khanna | 1% |
| Chris Van Hollen | 1% |
| Mitch Landrieu | 1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0% |
| Mark Cuban | 0% |
| Tim Walz | 0% |
| Michelle Obama | 0% |
| Gina Raimondo | 0% |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0% |
| Roy Cooper | 0% |
| John Fetterman | 0% |
| Jared Polis | 0% |
| Jon Stewart | 0% |
| Barack Obama | 0% |
| Hillary Clinton | 0% |
| Liz Cheney | 0% |
| Bernie Sanders | 0% |
| Phil Murphy | 0% |
| LeBron James | 0% |
| George Clooney | 0% |
| MrBeast | 0% |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0% |
| Andrew Yang | 0% |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0% |
| Kim Kardashian | 0% |
| Chris Murphy | 0% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0% |
| Ruben Gallego | 0% |
| Graham Platner | 0% |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0% |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0% |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0% |
| Adam Schiff | 0% |
| Josh Stein | 0% |
| Alex Padilla | 0% |
| Person X | 0% |
| Person Y | 0% |
| Person Z | 0% |
| Person AA | 0% |
| Person AB | 0% |
| Person AC | 0% |
| Person AD | 0% |
| Person AE | 0% |
| Person AF | 0% |
| Person AG | 0% |
| Person AH | 0% |
| Person AI | 0% |
| Person AJ | 0% |
| Person AK | 0% |
| Person AL | 0% |
| Person AM | 0% |
| Person AN | 0% |
| Person AO | 0% |
| Person AP | 0% |
| Person AQ | 0% |
| Person AR | 0% |
| Person AS | 0% |
| Person AT | 0% |
| Person AU | 0% |
| Person AV | 0% |
| Person AW | 0% |
| Person AX | 0% |
| Person AY | 0% |
| Person AZ | 0% |
| Person BA | 0% |
| Person BB | 0% |
| Person BC | 0% |
| Person BD | 0% |
| Person BE | 0% |
| Person BF | 0% |
| Person BG | 0% |
| Person BH | 0% |
| Person BI | 0% |
| Person BJ | 0% |
| Person BK | 0% |
| Person BL | 0% |
| Person BM | 0% |
| Person BN | 0% |
| Person BO | 0% |
| Person BP | 0% |
| Person BQ | 0% |
| Person BR | 0% |
| Person BS | 0% |
| Person BT | 0% |
| Person BU | 0% |
| Person BV | 0% |
| Person BW | 0% |
| Person BX | 0% |
| Person BY | 0% |
| Person BZ | 0% |
| Person CA | 0% |
| Person CB | 0% |
| Person CC | 0% |
| Person CD | 0% |
| Person CE | 0% |
| Person CF | 0% |
| Person CG | 0% |
| Person CH | 0% |
| Person CI | 0% |
| Person CJ | 0% |
| Person CK | 0% |
| Person CL | 0% |
| Person CM | 0% |
| Person CN | 0% |
| Person CO | 0% |
| Person CP | 0% |
| Person CQ | 0% |
| Person CR | 0% |
| Person CS | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 18% YES probability for Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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