Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by 2026?

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Market context

Ships are rerouting away from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as carriers like CMA CGM avoid the passage to the Red Sea, driven by Houthi maritime threats and Iranian warnings of potential closure if US forces intervene. While a quarter of global energy supply could be blocked if the strait shuts alongside Hormuz, current transit remains moderate, with a 57% drop from pre-2023 averages but no sustained closure to single-digit weekly arrivals. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects that the market threshold of ten 7-day moving average arrivals is far below recent figures, such as the 235 passings recorded in early February, suggesting closure is not imminent despite geopolitical tensions.

Historically, comparable chokepoint disruptions, including the Houthi campaign targeting over 100 commercial ships between 2023 and 2025, led to rerouting but not total closure, with the Joint Maritime Information Center maintaining a moderate threat level for the region. The May 2025 ceasefire between the US and Houthis reopened the strait, and while Iran retains the capability to pose a credible threat, no data indicates arrivals have fallen to single digits. Traders should watch for announcements from Iran’s Tasnim news agency regarding US ground operations or naval manoeuvres, as these could escalate threats, alongside updates on sea mine removal, which experts say could take weeks and temporarily impede safe shipping routes.

Key catalysts include scheduled US naval activities in the Gulf region and any renewed Houthi attacks on vessels using AIS transponders, which the US Government advises commercial ships to turn off to avoid targeting. Recent reports from the Maritime Administration highlight increased risk for US-flagged vessels transiting the southern Red Sea, with guidance to avoid duplicating planned routes and transit during darkness to obfuscate targeting efforts. While the strait remains vital for Saudi Arabia’s energy exports to Asia, the absence of arrivals below ten in recent data, combined with the moderate threat level, supports the current 0% probability that the strait will effectively close by the settlement date.

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