🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogTrade this market →

Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

How the prediction market is pricing "Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Farage 70–80% 50% Farage 80%+ 35% Farage 60–70% 14% Farage 50–60% 1% Volume: $1.0M Liquidity: $396K Closes: 30 Jun 2027
Open live market →
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Farage 70–80%50%
Farage 80%+35%
Farage 60–70%14%
Farage 50–60%1%
Farage <40%0%
Farage 40–50%0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 50% probability to clacton by-election: nigel farage vote %. A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve accordin…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote % on World Cup 2026 Favorites

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to World Cup 2026 Favorites.

See all markets →