Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Israel–Hamas ceasefire is still trading against a deal structure that has already produced one formal agreement, but phase two remains the harder leg because it is tied to issues neither side has fully resolved: Israeli withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, and the shape of Gaza’s future administration. Phase one was implemented in October 2025, after Israel’s cabinet approved the accord and forces pulled back to the agreed “Yellow Line”, while US officials later said phase two had been reached in principle in January 2026; however, independent reporting says subsequent negotiations stalled. [1][2][3]

That history matters for reading the current **66%** implied probability. Comparable ceasefire frameworks show that early humanitarian and hostage-related steps are easier to complete than the follow-on political and security package: in the 2025 deal, phase two was supposed to start 16 days into phase one, but talks did not begin on schedule and the truce later slipped into limbo. The same pattern has repeated here, with repeated breaches after the October ceasefire and disagreement over Hamas disarmament making a public second-phase announcement harder than the first-phase rollout. [4][5][7]

For traders, the key catalysts are official statements from Washington, Jerusalem, Doha and Cairo, plus any confirmation that negotiators have moved from framework talks to a text that both sides can publicly sign off on. Market movement is likely to hinge on whether hostage-remainder or prisoner-exchange issues are resolved alongside security guarantees and transitional governance, because those are the gates that separate a loose understanding from an “official agreement” for phase two. Recent coverage has also pointed to recurring delays and stalled talks, so any fresh announcement on implementation sequencing or a new mediation round would be more meaningful than general rhetoric. [2][3][4][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.