Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Candidate U | 50% |
| Candidate V | 50% |
| Candidate W | 50% |
| Candidate X | 50% |
| Candidate Y | 50% |
| Candidate Z | 50% |
| Candidate AA | 50% |
| Candidate AB | 50% |
| Candidate AC | 50% |
| Candidate AD | 50% |
| Candidate AE | 50% |
| Candidate AF | 50% |
| Candidate AG | 50% |
| Candidate AH | 50% |
| Candidate AI | 50% |
| Candidate AJ | 50% |
| Candidate AK | 50% |
| Candidate AL | 50% |
| Candidate AM | 50% |
| Candidate AN | 50% |
| Candidate AO | 50% |
| Candidate AP | 50% |
| Candidate AQ | 50% |
| Candidate AR | 50% |
| Candidate AS | 50% |
| Candidate AT | 50% |
| Candidate AU | 50% |
| Candidate AV | 50% |
| Candidate AW | 50% |
| Candidate AX | 50% |
| Candidate AY | 50% |
| Candidate AZ | 50% |
| Candidate BA | 50% |
| Candidate BB | 50% |
| Candidate BC | 50% |
| Candidate BD | 50% |
| Candidate BE | 50% |
| Candidate BF | 50% |
| Candidate BG | 50% |
| Candidate BH | 50% |
| Candidate BI | 50% |
| Candidate BJ | 50% |
| Candidate BK | 50% |
| Candidate BL | 50% |
| Candidate BM | 50% |
| Candidate BN | 50% |
| Candidate BO | 50% |
| Candidate BP | 50% |
| Candidate BQ | 50% |
| Candidate BR | 50% |
| Candidate BS | 50% |
| Candidate BT | 50% |
| Candidate BU | 50% |
| Candidate BV | 50% |
| Candidate BW | 50% |
| Candidate BX | 50% |
| Candidate BY | 50% |
| Candidate BZ | 50% |
| Candidate CA | 50% |
| Candidate CB | 50% |
| Candidate CC | 50% |
| Candidate CD | 50% |
| Candidate CE | 50% |
| Candidate CF | 50% |
| Candidate CG | 50% |
| Candidate CH | 50% |
| Candidate CI | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Scott Jennings | 16% |
| Alina Habba | 13% |
| Laura Loomer | 13% |
| Anna Kelly | 10% |
| Tricia McLaughlin | 9% |
| Kaelan Dorr | 8% |
| Monica Crowley | 8% |
| Kayleigh McEnany | 7% |
| Spencer Pratt | 6% |
| Taylor Rogers | 5% |
| Natalie Harp | 5% |
| Katie Miller | 5% |
| Lara Trump | 5% |
| Lauren Bis | 4% |
| Hogan Gidley | 4% |
| Harrison Fields | 4% |
| Margo Martin | 3% |
| Katie Pavlich | 3% |
| Ari Fleischer | 3% |
| Rachel Campos-Duffy | 3% |
| Maria Bartiromo | 3% |
| Beni Rae Harmony | 3% |
| Karoline Leavitt | 3% |
| Kush Desai | 2% |
| Pat Adams | 2% |
| Liz Huston | 2% |
| Kari Lake | 2% |
| Matthew Boyle | 2% |
| Elizabeth Pipko | 2% |
| Jake Paul | 2% |
| Steven Cheung | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 50% probability to next press secretary?. This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Katie Zacharia by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Next Press Secretary?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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