Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are effectively barred from the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transit calls hovering near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 vessels. The crisis stems from escalating US-Iran conflict since late February, where Tehran attacked commercial tankers and imposed tolls, forcing over 150 ships to anchor outside the chokepoint. A brief reopening in April collapsed within days, leaving throughput at under 2% of normal capacity and driving Brent crude to surge while war-risk insurance premiums hit extreme levels [1][2].

Historical precedents for this probability are stark: the only prior resumption of normal traffic occurred during a two-week ceasefire in April, yet vessel numbers remained low immediately after due to lingering confusion and security fears [1]. Current data from IMF PortWatch shows a 7-day moving average of just 13.14 vessels as of 21 June, far below the 60-vessel threshold required for a "Yes" resolution [7]. Without a sustained peace deal, the 49% crowd-implied probability reflects the slim chance of a rapid geopolitical thaw before the July 15 settlement window closes [1].

Traders must monitor President Trump’s stipulation that reopening the strait is a prerequisite for any ceasefire with Tehran, alongside any new naval blockade announcements or peace negotiation breakthroughs [3]. Key dependencies include the potential removal of Iranian-imposed mines and the restoration of safe passage under Iranian control, which Tehran has demanded as a condition for transit [3]. Recent MarineTraffic data suggests a gradual return to normal levels, but this remains uncertain amid continued tensions, making the next 20 days critical for assessing whether the 60-vessel average can be achieved [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.