Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are barely moving through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits hovering near zero after Iran reversed a brief reopening on 22 April 2026 following security incidents. Pre-war traffic averaged over 150 vessels per day, but the current blockade has reduced throughput to under 2% of normal levels, leaving more than 150 ships stranded and war-risk insurance premiums at 16 times their usual rate. Despite an 8 April US-Iran ceasefire, commercial shipping remains at a trickle, with only six vessels navigating the strait in the last 24 hours as reported by Reuters.

Historical parallels from the 2026 closure show that even after temporary reopenings, traffic collapses again within days due to asymmetric Iranian power via drones and missiles, keeping oil prices elevated and deterrence strong. The 100-day closure marks the first operational shutdown of this critical chokepoint in modern history, with no sustained recovery despite peace negotiations. A recent uptick to 25 verified crossings on 18 June offers a fleeting signal, yet this remains far below the 60-day moving average threshold required for the market to resolve "Yes".

Traders must watch for any official announcements from the US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center regarding routing uncertainties or ceasefire terms, as well as scheduled surcharges from major carriers like Mediterranean Shipping Company pushing sharp rate hikes. The IMF Portwatch data dependency is critical; without a 7-day moving average of 60 or above, the market resolves "No". Recent reports confirm that ships transiting without AIS remain an extreme possibility, but verified counts remain insufficient to meet the settlement criteria before 7 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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