Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is betting on whether another state will formally normalise relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework before the end of 2026, and the current 6% yes price implies a low expectation of a new signing. The benchmark is the original 2020 wave, when the UAE and Bahrain signed in Washington, with Morocco and Sudan following, so any fresh accession would need to be an explicit, publicly acknowledged agreement rather than loose diplomatic contact or a political statement.[1][4][10]

That low probability fits the record since 2020: expansion has been uneven, and credible coverage has repeatedly framed the Accords as politically durable but hard to widen. Reuters has described the original accords as a break with decades of Arab-Israeli diplomatic practice, while later reporting and market commentary have pointed to stalled momentum, with countries such as Saudi Arabia, Syria and others discussed as prospects but still short of a signed deal.[10][4][2] In market terms, the bar is not interest or speculation, but a formal signature that both sides clearly tie to the Accords.

For traders, the key catalysts are official announcements, U.S.-brokered diplomatic meetings, and whether any candidate country moves from broad signalling to a signed text before 31 December 2026. Recent reporting has highlighted renewed pressure from Washington to expand the framework, including public remarks from Donald Trump about urging several Muslim-majority states to join, but no broad wave of confirmations has followed.[8] The main watchpoints are whether any government issues a joint statement, whether Israel confirms the arrangement, and whether the deal is framed as continuation of the Abraham Accords rather than a separate bilateral normalisation track.[2][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Which sports markets are available?

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.