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Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?

"Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?" — live football odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

Pete Hegseth 5% Steve Witkoff 5% Marco Rubio 4% Benjamin Netanyahu 4% Volume: $1.0M Liquidity: $552K Closes: 7 Jul 2026
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Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
5% 95% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
5% 95% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Pete Hegseth5%
Steve Witkoff5%
Marco Rubio4%
Benjamin Netanyahu4%
Shehbaz Sharif3%
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah3%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa3%
JD Vance3%
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan3%
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi3%
Jared Kushner2%
Abbas Araghchi2%
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani2%
King Abdullah II2%
Recep Tayyip Erdogan2%
Mohammed bin Salman1%
Mojtaba Khamenei1%
Donald Trump1%
Masoud Pezeshkian1%
Elon Musk1%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 5% probability to who will attend us-iran signing ceremony?. On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed in…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Related Topics

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