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Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

"Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" — live football odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

Gadi Eizenkot 51% Benjamin Netanyahu 34% Naftali Bennett 6% Avigdor Lieberman 6% Volume: $31.5M Liquidity: $2.8M Closes: 31 Dec 2026
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Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
51% 49% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
51% 49% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Gadi Eizenkot51%
Benjamin Netanyahu34%
Naftali Bennett6%
Avigdor Lieberman6%
Yair Golan1%
Gilad Erdan1%
Yair Lapid0%
Benny Gantz0%
Yossi Cohen0%
Itamar Ben Gvir0%
Gideon Sa’ar0%
Yariv Levin0%
Moshe Feiglin0%
Ayelet Shaked0%
Yoaz Hendel0%
Israel Katz0%
Nir Barkat0%
Amir Ohana0%
Person G0%
Person H0%
Person I0%
Person J0%
Person K0%
Person L0%
Person M0%
Person N0%
Person O0%
Other0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 51% probability to who will be the next prime minister of israel after the next election?. Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel foll…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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Related Topics

Israel Prediction Markets