Who will enter Iran by June 30?

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Market context

No U.S. political figure is currently scheduled to enter Iran, and the prevailing 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the severe diplomatic and security barriers that make such a visit virtually impossible under present conditions. The United States maintains a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory for Iran, citing terrorism, kidnapping, arbitrary detention, and the absence of diplomatic relations, with the Swiss Embassy in Tehran serving only as a protecting power for American interests[4]. Historically, high-level U.S. visits to Iran have been exceptionally rare and almost exclusively tied to crisis negotiations, such as the 2013–2015 indirect talks that led to the JCPOA, which occurred behind closed doors without public arrivals by U.S. officials on Iranian soil.

The immediate catalysts for any shift in this probability would be formal announcements of high-level diplomatic breakthroughs, such as a confirmed visit by Vice President JD Vance or a special envoy like Steve Witkoff, both of whom have been linked to recent Switzerland-based Iran negotiations[2][6]. However, Vance recently delayed his trip to Switzerland, citing uncertainty over plans for a signing event, while Iran’s President Pezeshkian has instead travelled to Pakistan following US–Iran talks mediated in Switzerland[1][2]. Traders should monitor official White House statements, State Department travel advisory updates, and any sudden rescheduling of Vance’s or Witkoff’s missions, as these would be the only plausible triggers for a positive resolution before the June 30 settlement window[2][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.