Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2027?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States has released declassified files on unidentified aerial phenomena, yet none confirm extraterrestrial life or technology. Recent Pentagon disclosures, including a new batch of UFO materials in May 2026, fuel public fascination but explicitly state that “unidentified” does not equate to “alien”[1][2]. Despite claims by whistleblowers like David Grusch about recovered non-human biologics, the Pentagon has denied any verifiable evidence of reverse-engineering programmes or extraterrestrial possession[3][4].

Historically, no government entity has ever officially confirmed aliens exist. The 2026 PURSUE file release, initiated by President Trump, followed the same pattern: unresolved cases, unreliable eyewitness transcripts, and no hint of artificial alien origin[2][4]. Experts from SETI and the Cranbrook Institute reinforce that current evidence remains compellingly absent, keeping the 10% market probability grounded in reality rather than speculation[2].

Traders should monitor scheduled Pentagon document releases, with Chief Spokesperson Sean Parnell confirming more files are “actively being processed” for imminent publication[2]. Watch for official statements from the President, Cabinet, or Joint Chiefs, as these are the sole resolution triggers. Any sudden congressional testimony or agency announcement regarding UAPs could shift odds, but until a definitive government confirmation occurs, the market remains firmly in “No” territory[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2027? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.